Vinexpo global market forecasts to 2016

For the 11th year running, Vinexpo, the international wine and spirits exhibition, has commissioned a detailed study from the research consultancy The IWSR (The International Wine and Spirit Research), containing in-depth analysis of world wine and spirits consumption, production and trade trends, as well as a five-year forecast – up to 2016. The study covers 28 producer countries and 114 wine and spirits markets. Here are some of the highights.

The Wine Market Worldwide

World wine consumption on the increase

Worldwide consumption of still, light wines (i.e. with less than 15% alcohol content) and sparkling wines increased by 2.8% between 2007 and 2011, reaching 2.679 billion 9-litre cases by the end of the period, the equivalent of 32 billion bottles.

Vinexpo’s market survey, the only one of its kind to anticipate changes in consumption, production and trade on a world scale over the next 5 years, forecasts that between 2012 and 2016, growth in worldwide consumption will accelerate. It will return to the rates observed between 2000 and 2005 and reach 5.3% over the 5-year period.

By 2016, world consumption will attain 2.873 billion 9-litre cases or 34.481 billion bottles.

Faster growth in sparkling wines than still, light wines

In 2011, sparkling wines accounted for 7.7% of all wines drunk in the world.

Between 2007 and 2011, the consumption of sparkling wines grew by 4.17%, compared to the 2.72% growth in still, light wines over the same period.

Sparkling wine consumption is expected to grow by a further 8.52% between 2012 and 2016. This increase is primarily due to expected rises in consumption in the top four sparkling wine markets worldwide: Germany, France, Russia and the US.

China, the US, Russia and Australia drive growth in world consumption

In 2011, these four markets drank 129 million more 9-litre cases than in 2007, an increase of 1.55 billion bottles.

In 2010, China became the fifth largest wine consumer in the world. In 2011, the U.S. became the leading wine consuming nation and Australia joined the top ten wine drinking countries, relegating Romania.

Europeans drink less and differently

For the first time in 15 years, German and British wine consumption decreased between 2007 and 2011 by 2.73% and 4.07% respectively.

The French and the Italians also reduced their consumption: down 7.13% in the first case and 2.51% in the second. In Spain, meanwhile, consumption collapsed, down 19.67% in the 5 years between 2007 and 2011.

The world still prefers red

Red wine accounted for 54.7% of all still, light wines drunk in 2011.

Between 2011 and 2016, world red wine consumption is expected to grow by 9.1%, driven especially by the Chinese, while white wine consumption should only increase by 2.75% over the same period.

The consumption of rosé wines on the other hand is expected to increase by 7.58% between 2011 and 2016, reaching a total share of 9.2% of all wines drunk.

World sales soar for wines priced higher than US$10 per bottle

These wines accounted for 213.56 million 9-litre cases in 2011 i.e. 8.6% of all still, light wines consumed in the world, their consumption having grown by 12.59% since 2007, mainly in China, the US and Canada.

Their growth should continue between 2011 and 2016 by a massive 29.93%, while at the same time the consumption of wines priced from US$5 to US$10 per bottle is expected to increase by 9.99%.

Wines that sell for less than US$5 per bottle, which represented 69.92% of wines drunk in 2011 are expected to increase by 2.77% over the same 5-year period.

The world wine trade continues to develop

A little more than one bottle out of four drunk somewhere in the world, 27% to be precise, is imported.

This segment continues to grow faster than the whole market, up 7.92% between 2007 and 2011, compared to 2.83%.

France still leads the world for the value of its wine exports

Having sold US$9.902 billion worth of wine overseas in 2011, 5.24% more than in 2007, France consolidated its world position as the leading exporter of wine in value terms.

Italy and Spain came second and third, but the value of their sales grew less than the volumes they exported: revenue was up 24.31% compared to an increase in volumes of 47.62%, a clear sign that the average prices of their exported wines fell significantly.

The same could be said for Australian wines: up 13.3% in volume but down 20.94% in value between 2007 and 2011, while conversely, Chilean wines are pursuing a clear strategy to move up market in the worldwide arena: up 8.13% in volume and up 33.09% in value over the same 5-year period.

The Worldwide Spirits Market

Asia-Pacific drinks more spirits than any other region in the world

In 2011, 61.5% of the world’s spirits were drunk in Asia-Pacific. This results from substantial 74.31% growth in Asian-Pacific spirits consumption that took place between 2007 and 2011, but this is expected to slow down in the next 5 years to 13.63% according to VINEXPO’s forecasts.

Baijiu, a white spirit distilled from sorghum, wheat or rice, consumed in China (which is the leading spirits consuming nation in the world) accounts alone for more than one third of all the spirits consumed in the world.

World vodka consumption levels out, while rum and brandy continue to grow

Between 2007 and 2011, the world drank 4.93% less vodka, but according to the forecasts in the VINEXPO study, vodka consumption should grow again by 1.56% between 2012 and 2016. 491.68 million cases of vodka were consumed worldwide in 2011.

At the same time between 2007 and 2011, brandy consumption, excluding Cognac and Armagnac, jumped by 23.24% while rum drinkers consumed 22.32% more of their favourite beverage.

Cognac and Armagnac consumption remained practically stable between 2007 and 2011, down just 0.92%, but is expected to increase significantly by 12.22% between 2012 and 2016.

World spirits revenue is growing fast

Revenue from spirits sales worldwide increased by 43% over the five years from 2007 to 2011, while volumes sold increased by 32.64% over the same period.

However, Asia only accounted for 48.6% of revenue from spirits sales worldwide, while consuming 61.5% of the total world volume. However, the move to embrace more up-market products observed especially in China, continues.

3 February 2013 - Felicity Murray